System Price Analysis for PAR and VoLL changes in 2018
The System Price Analysis Dashboard provided a modelled price for the 1 November 2018 parameter changes. The parameters Price Average Reference (PAR) and Value of Lost Load (VoLL) changed as a result of Modification P305: Electricity Balancing Significant Code Review Developments.
Please note that this data set is no longer being updated but remains available for historical comparison.
Using the dashboard
On the top left hand corner of each chart and table are options to drill down (or drill up) into the data. By default, the charts are displayed by Settlement Day, however, by drilling-down; the data can be displayed by half-hourly Settlement Period.
Alternatively, by enabling the ‘Click to turn on Drill Down’ on the top right hand corner of charts, you can drill down into data by clicking on a data point.
Unable to see the data graphs? Please open the page using Chrome.
Increase the screen size by using the Use the Full Screen mode 
About the Data
The System Price data used in this dashboard is updated on a daily basis, and will represent Settlement Data from the latest available Settlement Run. The Live and November 2018 scenario System Prices are provided for comparison, this also provides a separate view of the data as ‘Differences’ which is November 2018 prices minus Live prices.
The earliest available Settlement Date is 5 November 2015 (P305 go-live date). The System Price Analysis Dashboard will be available on the Elexon website until 1 November 2018.
The changes will make prices more marginal. In general this will push prices up when the market has a shortage of energy and down where there is a surplus of energy.
In particular, the changes will be a reduction in PAR from 50 MWh to 1 MWh and an increase in VoLL from £3,000/MWh to £6,000/MWh. A further change is not taken into account, which is the move from a static Loss of Load Probability calculation to a dynamic one. This calculation is operated by National Grid and is not applied in the model.
About the tabs and filters
1: Live and November 2018 Scenario System Prices
Chart 1.1: Average System Price
This chart displays the average Live System Price in £/MWh (black line) and the average November 2018 Scenario System Price in £/MWh (red line).
Table 1.1: Live System Price Summary (£/MWh)
A summary table detailing the Average, Maximum, Minimum, and Standard Deviation Live System Prices in £/MWh when the market is Long or Short.
Table 1.2: November 2018 Scenario System Price Summary (£/MWh)
A summary table detailing the Average, Maximum, Minimum, and Standard Deviation November 2018 Scenario System Prices in £/MWh when the market is Long or Short.
Filter 1.1: Settlement Date
This filter will allow the user to set the start and end Settlement Dates.
Filter 1.2: Scenario
This filter will allow the user to toggle between displaying Live System Prices, November 2018 Scenario System Prices, or both.
Filter 1.3: Market Direction
In reference to market length, this means that the volume of Accepted Bids/offers exceeds that of Accepted Offers/Bids.
2: Average System Price Difference
Chart 2.1: Average System Price difference and Average Net Imbalance Volume
The difference between average Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices in £/MWh (bar chart). This is displayed against the average Net Imbalance Volume in MWh (black line).
Table 2.1: System Price Difference Summary
This table will display the average difference in £/MWh between Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices, in a Long or Short market.
Filter 2.1: Settlement Date
This filter will allow the user to set the start and end Settlement Dates.
Filter 2.2: Include in Calculation
Includes or excludes zero System Price differences to be displayed and included in average price calculations.
Filter 2.3: Market Direction
In reference to market length, this means that the volume of Accepted Bids/offers exceeds that of Accepted Offers/Bids.
3: Maximum System Price Difference in a Short Market
Chart 3.1: Maximum of Live, November 2018, and the Maximum Difference
The maximum Live and November 2018 Scenario System Price in £/MWh (bar charts). The maximum difference between Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices in £/MWh (red line).
Table 3.1: Maximum System Price Summary
This table will display the maximum difference in £/MWh between Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices, in a Short market.
Filter 3.1: Settlement Date
This filter will allow the user to set the start and end Settlement Dates.
4: Minimum System Price Difference in a Long Market
Chart 4.1: Minimum of Live, November 2018, and the Minimum Difference
The minimum Live and November 2018 Scenario System Price in £/MWh (bar charts). The minimum difference between Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices in £/MWh (red line).
Table 4.1: Minimum System Price Summary
This table will display the minimum difference in £/MWh between Live System Prices and November 2018 Scenario System Prices, in a Long market.
Filter 4.1: Settlement Date
This filter will allow the user to set the start and end Settlement Dates.
5: Further Information
Download Prices
You can also download the live System Prices from the Elexon Portal using Best View Prices.
Detailed System Prices
A detailed breakdown of the indicative System Price calculation’s Stack can be found on the BMRS Detailed System Prices page. The Buy and Sell Stacks are displayed separately and is calculated based on data received from the System Operator. Each Stack lists all accepted actions included in the System Price calculations, including the System Actions showing the initial data along with details of how the indicative price calculation processing affects each item’s volume and price.
System Price Analysis Report
Read our monthly System Price Analysis Report (SPAR), it provides data and analysis specific to System Prices and the Balancing Mechanism. It demonstrates out-turn prices and the data used to derive the prices. The data is a combination of II and SF Settlement Runs.
P305 Post Implementation Review
Read our 12 Month Post Implement Review of P305 taking an in depth look at the changes implemented in November 2015. There’s a choice of the ‘Summary and Key Points’ or the full review.
YouTube – ‘Introduction to P305’
Imbalance Pricing Guidance
- guide to electricity Imbalance Pricing – this provides a detailed explanation of our pricing methods with worked example.