Consultation: Credit Assessment Price decrease to £350/MWh from 7 October 2022
This page gives details of a consultation on revising the Credit Assessment Price (CAP) to £350/MWh from 7 October 2022. This two-day consultation will close at 17:00 on 22 September 2022.
Status
Outcome
There were no responses to this consultation. As a result, the CAP value will decrease to £350/MWh on Friday 7 October 2022.
Original consultation
Who will this impact?
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is used in the Energy Indebtedness calculations to convert Credit Cover into an energy value. A change to CAP can impact the amount of Credit Cover required by a BSC Party.
When the CAP changes it may affect the amount of credit cover that suppliers and generators are required to lodge with us. For some Parties this may mean additional collateral needs to be lodged. We recommend monitoring your Indebtedness and Credit Cover Percentage calculations on the Elexon Portal to understand how this change may affect your Party.
What is proposed?
Following a meeting of the Credit Committee, the proposal is to decrease the CAP to £350/MWh effective from Friday 7 October 2022.
Following a significant drop in the forward market prices, the Credit Committee has withdrawn the last notified CAP of £515/MWh that was otherwise due to be implemented from 22 September.
The current live CAP value of £415/MWh was implemented on 31 August 2022 and will remain valid until the next CAP is notified (this will be after closure of this consultation).
Therefore, the timeline of the current and the upcoming CAP is as follows:
|
CAP |
CAP value (£/MWh) |
Effective From Date |
Effective To Date* |
|
Live CAP |
415 |
31 August |
6 October |
|
This consultation’s proposed CAP |
350 |
7 October |
– |
*Note: The Credit Committee might withdraw a CAP if market developments closer to the implementation date support such a decision. Withdrawing a CAP would mean retaining the live CAP, as such the Effective To Date above is provisional.
Alternative CAP Review Process
Credit Committee members have decided to continue using the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process due to fast market conditions. This alternative process allows the Credit Committee to set a new CAP faster, review the CAP every two weeks and base their assessment on a wider range of data sources. Please note this alternative process is outlined in the CAP Review Process Guidance.
To allow the faster implementation of CAP values during the alternative CAP review process, the Credit Committee will initially consider your consultation response ex committee. However, your response will be considered in more depth at the next Credit Committee meeting. The next Credit Committee will be held on 23 September 2022.
Background to the Credit Assessment Price
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is a parameter defined in Section M1.4 of the BSC as ‘the price it would be appropriate to use to determine the equivalent financial amount of BSC Parties’ Energy Indebtedness.’
Since 1 November 2021 the Credit Committee have been following the alternative CAP review process due to fast market conditions. While the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process is being operated, the Credit Committee will review the Credit Assessment Price at least once every two weeks. However the Credit Committee might also meet in between if they feel it is necessary.
The consultation period is reduced to two working days and the notification period is reduced to 10 working days. This enables the CAP to change faster so that it remains representative of market conditions.
Rationale behind the new proposed CAP value
The Credit Committee met on 20 September 2022 and proposed a new CAP of £350/MWh for implementation on 7 October 2022.
The Credit Committee have been using ICIS Heren peak and baseload, power price assessments as the primary information to inform their decisions. The data that the committee were provided with is shown in the graphs below.
The Credit Committee considered the latest forward market prices for October 2022 but acknowledged that the prices for November and beyond are significantly higher. The latest date with available forward market data was 19 September 2022. For this date, average forward market prices were at £312/MWh for October 2022 with a peak price of £344/MWh and a baseload price of £281/MWh.
A significant challenge here is that the November prices are more than twice the October numbers. The average price for November is £630/MWh whereas it is £312/MWh for October. This makes decreasing the CAP from the current £415/MWh value even more difficult as it seems to be surging back up to around £600/MWh in just a few weeks.
The Credit Committee will have to set a higher CAP for late October/early November, should the November numbers remain unchanged in the next few weeks.
The Credit Committee also considered the System Prices and Market Index Prices. The seven day rolling average of System Prices on 16 September was £287/MWh The seven day rolling average of Market Index Prices was £308/MWh.
Based on the most recent updates in the market data, the Credit Committee members unanimously agreed to propose a new CAP value of £350/MWh, to be implemented from 7 October 2022.
The graphs below contain the data that was presented to the Credit Committee to help inform their decision. There are five graphs, you can move between the graphs by using the arrows at the bottom. There are also options to filter the data by using the buttons on the right-hand side of the graphs.
Next Steps
Following the end of the consultation period, if required, the Credit Committee will consider any consultation responses, and decide whether to proceed with the proposed CAP. Consultation responses will be considered at the next Credit Committee meeting on 23 September 2022.
Any changes will be notified to all BSC Parties, and the new CAP will come into effect at least 10 Working Days later.
Further guidance
If any Parties have questions or concerns about the CAP, please reach out to our team at [email protected].
If you have questions or concerns about how the change to CAP may impact your Credit Cover please get in contact with [email protected].