Consultation: Credit Assessment Price revision for mid-October 2022
This page gives details of a consultation on revising the Credit Assessment Price (CAP) to £420/MWh from 12 October 2022 and to £465/MWh from 19 October. This two-day consultation will close at 17:00 on 27 September 2022.
Status
Outcome
7 October 2022
Due to the high level of uncertainty in the market, the Credit Committee met today, for the second time this week, and decided not to proceed with the consulted on CAP of £465/MWh. This follows the Credit Committee’s decision on 5 October to withdraw the last notified CAP of £420/MWh.
5 October 2022
Following further decreases in the forward market prices for October 2022, the Credit Committee met today and decided to withdraw the last notified CAP of £420/MWh.
28 September 2022
There were no responses to the consultation and so the CAP value will increase to £420/MWh on Wednesday 12 October. There will be a further notification on 5 October confirming whether the other consulted on CAP (£465/MWh effective from 19 October) will proceed.
Original consultation
Who will this impact?
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is used in the Energy Indebtedness calculations to convert Credit Cover into an energy value. A change to CAP can impact the amount of Credit Cover required by a BSC Party.
When the CAP changes it may affect the amount of credit cover that suppliers and generators are required to lodge with us. For some Parties this may mean additional collateral needs to be lodged. We recommend monitoring your Indebtedness and Credit Cover Percentage calculations on the Elexon Portal to understand how this change may affect your Party.
What is proposed?
This consultation seeks your views on revising the CAP to £420/MWh from 12 October and to £465/MWh from 19 October.
The current live CAP value of £415/MWh was implemented on 31 August 2022.
On 23 September the Credit Committee confirmed and notified of the decrease in the Credit Assessment Price to £350/MWh from 7 October, following a consultation that closed on 22 September 2022.
Nevertheless, the market trends towards November shows a significant jump from October prices. This is why the Credit Committee has decided to arrange for two CAP options in mid-October, should the market developments over the next weeks point to the confirmation that October and November prices will converge.
Therefore, the following timeline outlines the current and the upcoming CAPs and the important dates:
|
CAP |
CAP value (£/MWh) |
Notification Date |
Effective From Date |
Effective To Date* |
|
Live CAP |
415 |
16 August |
31 August |
6 October |
|
Today’s notified CAP |
350 |
23 September |
7 October |
11 October |
|
Today’s consultation |
420 |
28 September |
12 October |
18 October |
|
Today’s consultation |
465 |
5 October |
19 October |
– |
*Note: The Notification Date of a CAP is 10 working days before the Effective From Date and indicates the date on which the Credit Committee notifies whether or not it will proceed with the consulted on CAP. The Credit Committee might withdraw a notified CAP if market developments closer to the Effective From Date support such a decision.
Alternative CAP Review Process
Credit Committee members have decided to continue using the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process due to fast market conditions. This alternative process allows the Credit Committee to set a new CAP faster, review the CAP every two weeks and base their assessment on a wider range of data sources. Please note this alternative process is outlined in the CAP Review Process Guidance.
To allow the faster implementation of CAP values during the alternative CAP review process, the Credit Committee will initially consider your consultation response ex committee. However, your response will be considered in more depth at the next Credit Committee meeting. The next Credit Committee will be held on 30 September 2022.
Background to the Credit Assessment Price
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is a parameter defined in Section M1.4 of the BSC as ‘the price it would be appropriate to use to determine the equivalent financial amount of BSC Parties’ Energy Indebtedness.’
Since 1 November 2021 the Credit Committee have been following the alternative CAP review process due to fast market conditions. While the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process is being operated, the Credit Committee will review the Credit Assessment Price at least once every two weeks. However the Credit Committee might also meet in between if they feel it is necessary.
The consultation period is reduced to two working days and the notification period is reduced to 10 working days. This enables the CAP to change faster so that it remains representative of market conditions.
Rationale behind the proposed CAP options
The Credit Committee met on 23 September 2022 and proposed a new CAP of £420/MWh for implementation on 12 October 2022 and another CAP of £465/MWh for implementation on 19 October 2022.
The Credit Committee have been using ICIS Heren peak and baseload, power price assessments as the primary information to inform their decisions. The data that the committee were provided with is shown in the graphs below.
The Credit Committee considered the latest forward market prices for October 2022 but acknowledged that the prices for November and beyond are significantly higher. The latest date with available forward market data was 22 September 2022. For this date, average forward market prices were at £340/MWh for October 2022 with a peak price of £375/MWh and a baseload price of £305/MWh. Average forward market prices for November were at £711/MWh.
A significant challenge here is that the November prices are more than twice the October numbers. The average price for November is £711/MWh whereas it is £340/MWh for October. Although the Credit Committee had already agreed to decrease the CAP to £350/MWh from 7 October, it thinks in order to be prepared for sudden increases in October numbers towards November prices, necessary actions should be taken. Therefore, it proposes two upward CAP changes for mid-October period, in case the trend of market confirms October and November numbers will converge.
Based on the most recent updates in the market data, the Credit Committee members unanimously agreed to propose a new CAP value of £420/MWh to be implemented from 12 October 2022 and another CAP value of £465/MWh to be implemented form 19 October 2022.
It is important to highlight that the Credit Committee has been monitoring the market closely and will continue to do so. As always, the Credit Committee will take necessary actions to protect BSC Parties against potential risks as soon as practicably possible.
The graphs below contain the data that was presented to the Credit Committee to help inform their decision. There are five graphs, you can move between the graphs by using the arrows at the bottom. There are also options to filter the data by using the buttons on the right-hand side of the graphs.
Next steps
Following the end of the consultation period, if required, the Credit Committee will consider any consultation responses, and decide whether to proceed with the proposed CAP. Consultation responses will be considered at the next Credit Committee meeting on 30 September 2022.
Note the decision as to whether the Credit Committee will proceed with the consulted on CAP of £420/MWh for implementation from 12 October will be communicated on 28 September. However, the decision on the other consulted on CAP of £465/MWh for implementation from 19 October will be communicated on 5 October.
Any changes will be notified to all BSC Parties, and the new CAP will come into effect at least 10 Working Days later.
Further guidance
If any Parties have questions or concerns about the CAP, please reach out to our team at [email protected].
If you have questions or concerns about how the change to CAP may impact your Credit Cover please get in contact with [email protected].