Consultation: revising CAP to £300/MWh from 8 November 2022
This page gives details of a consultation on revising the Credit Assessment Price (CAP) to £300/MWh from 8 November. This two-day consultation will close at 10:00 on 25 October 2022.
Status
Outcome
The consultation closed at 10:00 on 25 October with a single online response in agreement.
Therefore, on Tuesday 8 November, the CAP value will decrease to £250/MWh.
As a result, Parties may notice a change in their Credit Cover Percentage and should review the amount of Credit Cover lodged.
Original consultation
Who will this impact?
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is used in the Energy Indebtedness calculations to convert Credit Cover into an energy value. A change to CAP can impact the amount of Credit Cover required by a BSC Party.
When the CAP changes it may affect the amount of credit cover that suppliers and generators are required to lodge with us. For some Parties this may mean additional collateral needs to be lodged.
We recommend monitoring your Indebtedness and Credit Cover Percentage calculations on the Elexon Portal to understand how this change may affect your Party.
What is proposed?
This consultation seeks your views on revising the CAP to £300/MWh from 8 November.
The current live CAP value of £350/MWh was implemented on 7 October 2022 and is scheduled to be replaced by £450/MWh from 1 November.
However, following recent decreases in November prices, a further CAP value of £300/MWh effective from 8 November 2022 has been proposed by the Credit Committee for consultation. This gives the Credit Committee more flexibility in terms of the direction of the CAP when further data is available closer to November.
Therefore, the following timeline outlines the current and the upcoming CAPs and the important dates:
|
CAP |
CAP value (£/MWh) |
Notification Date |
Effective From Date |
Effective To Date* |
|
Live CAP |
350 |
23 September |
7 October |
31 October |
|
Last notified CAP |
450 |
18 October |
1 November |
7 November |
|
Today’s consultation |
300 |
25 October |
8 November |
– |
*Note: The Notification Date of a CAP is 10 working days before the Effective From Date and indicates the date on which the Credit Committee notifies whether or not it will proceed with the consulted on CAP.
The Credit Committee might withdraw a notified CAP if market developments closer to the Effective From Date support such a decision.
Alternative CAP Review Process
Credit Committee members have decided to continue using the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process due to fast market conditions.
This alternative process allows the Credit Committee to set a new CAP faster, review the CAP every two weeks and base their assessment on a wider range of data sources. Please note this alternative process is outlined in the CAP Review Process Guidance Note.
To allow the faster implementation of CAP values during the alternative CAP review process, the Credit Committee will initially consider your consultation response ex committee.
However, your response will be considered in more depth at the next Credit Committee meeting.
Consultation questions
The questions in the consultation are:
- Do you agree with the proposal to revise the Credit Assessment Price (CAP) to £300/MWh from 8 November?
- If your answer to the above Question is ‘No’, please give the value of CAP that you consider to be more appropriate and your rationale for that value.
- Do you have any further comments relating to the appropriate value of CAP or the other points made in the consultation document?
Background to the CAP
The Credit Assessment Price (CAP) is a parameter defined in Section M1.4 of the BSC as ‘the price it would be appropriate to use to determine the equivalent financial amount of BSC Parties’ Energy Indebtedness.’
Since 1 November 2021 the Credit Committee have been following the alternative CAP review process due to fast market conditions. While the alternative Credit Assessment Price (CAP) Review process is being operated, the Credit Committee will review the Credit Assessment Price at least once every two weeks. However the Credit Committee might also meet in between if they feel it is necessary.
The consultation period is reduced to two working days and the notification period is reduced to 10 working days. This enables the CAP to change faster so that it remains representative of market conditions.
Rationale behind the proposed CAP options
The Credit Committee is proposing a new CAP of £300/MWh for implementation on 8 November 2022.
The Credit Committee have been using ICIS Heren peak and baseload, power price assessments as the primary information to inform their decisions. The data that the committee were provided with is shown in the graphs below.
The Credit Committee considered the latest forward market prices for November 2022 and acknowledged prices were decreasing recently.
The latest date with available forward market data is 19 October 2022. For this date, average forward market prices were at £176/MWh for w/c 31 October 2022 with a peak price of £202MWh and a baseload price of £151/MWh.
Average forward market prices for November were at £314/MWh with the peak price of £369MWh and baseload price of £259/MWh.
Despite lowering market prices for the next couple of weeks, month+1 wholesale prices are still showing a premium, with November prices on average £314/MWh and December prices averaging at £538/MWh, which flags a persistent risk that the System Prices might start to track forward market prices in November and into December due to the high winter prices. With the last notified CAP of £450/MWh that gives the option to increase the CAP from 1 November, should prices goes back up, the Credit Committee has decided to introduce a lower CAP of £300 from 8 November if market developments points towards further decreases in November.
Based on the most recent updates in the market data, the Credit Committee members unanimously agreed to propose a new CAP value of £300MWh to be implemented from 8 November 2022.
It is important to highlight that the Credit Committee has been monitoring the market closely and will continue to do so. As always, the Credit Committee will take necessary actions to protect BSC Parties against potential risks as soon as practicably possible.
The graphs below contain the data that was presented to the Credit Committee to help inform their decision. There are five graphs, you can move between the graphs by using the arrows at the bottom. There are also options to filter the data by using the buttons on the right-hand side of the graphs.
Next Steps
Following the end of the consultation period, the Credit Committee will consider any consultation responses, and decide whether to proceed with the proposed CAP. Consultation responses will also be considered at the next Credit Committee meeting.
Note the decision as to whether the Credit Committee will proceed with the consulted on CAP of £300/MWh for implementation from 8 November will be communicated on 25 October.
Any changes will be notified to all BSC Parties, and the new CAP will come into effect at least 10 Working Days later.
Further guidance
If any Parties have questions or concerns about the CAP, please reach out to our team at [email protected].
If you have questions or concerns about how the change to CAP may impact your Credit Cover please get in contact with [email protected].